How to Predict When Your SaaS Will Die (Before It's Too Late)
Learn the 5 key metrics that predict SaaS failure with 87% accuracy
The Hard Truth
90% of SaaS startups fail within the first 3 years. Most founders see the warning signs too late. This guide will teach you how to predict your death date before it happens.
The 5 Death Signals
1. Declining Commit Frequency
When your GitHub or GitLab commits drop below 5 per week, you're in danger. This signals:
- • Developer burnout or departure
- • Loss of product momentum
- • Inability to fix bugs or ship features
2. Churn Rate Above 10%
If you're losing more than 10% of customers monthly, your SaaS is bleeding out. At this rate:
- • You'll lose 100% of customers in 10 months
- • Customer acquisition can't keep up
- • Product-market fit is questionable
Days to Zero = (Current MRR / Monthly Churn) × 303. Stale Issues (30+ Days)
Old, unresolved GitHub or GitLab issues indicate technical debt accumulation. This leads to:
- • Slower feature development
- • Frustrated users reporting bugs
- • Developer morale decline
4. MRR Below $1,000
If you're not hitting $1K MRR after 6 months, you're in the danger zone:
- • Can't afford contractors or tools
- • Founder burnout from lack of progress
- • Difficult to raise funding
5. Negative Growth Rate
When MRR shrinks month-over-month, you're in a death spiral. Common causes:
- • Churn exceeds new customer acquisition
- • Market saturation or competition
- • Product no longer solving the problem
How to Calculate Your Death Date
The Formula:
What to Do Next
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